Troubled Waters

Pak India bilateral  relationships have witnessed tremendous downward trajectory and detrimental  deterioration  declining to their lowest ebb ever since the emergence of the BJP regime in India in 2014. Indus Water Treaty (IWT) finally signed in 1960 under the aegis of the World Bank WB witnessed but  withstood severe military standoffs, diplomatic conflicts and confrontations, horrible wars and geopolitical vicissitudes throughout the course of chequered political history of the two nuclear armed neighbours. At the time of signing, IWT was considered to be the most resilient and stout water-sharing mechanism allocating three Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) to India and the other three Western rivers (Indus, Chenab and Jhelum) principally for Pakistan's use, subject to the treaty's provisions. But after assuming the power in New Delhi the BJP sarkar in 2016 raised concerns regarding the implementation of the agreement between India and Pakistan.

Water has long been more than a natural resource in South Asia; it has become a critical factor in peace, security, and regional stability. The Indus Waters Treaty has survived wars, military crises, and decades of Pakistan-India rivalry, yet its resilience now faces one of its most serious tests. India’s decision to hold the treaty in abeyance, ongoing disputes over hydroelectric projects, and the 31 August 2026 arbitration ruling have brought the future of this landmark water-sharing framework into sharp focus. At stake is not merely the flow of rivers, but the stability of a region where water security and strategic rivalry are increasingly intertwined.

India developed the Kishenganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydroelectric power projects raising concerns in Pakistan about the potential impact on downstream water flows. India on the other hand announced that it was holding the IWT in abeyance in April 2025 following the Pahalgam attack and the subsequent deterioration in bilateral relations. Seeking legal recourse, Pakistan pursued the dispute before the Court of Arbitration constituted under the Indus Waters Treaty, with the proceedings administered by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), which issued its 31 August 2026 Award on the Status of the Indus Waters Treaty, which held that the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force and binding despite India's decision to hold it in abeyance, while reaffirming the treaty framework governing the Western Rivers.

Even the PM has reiterated during his 2025 address to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) that the IWT is the lifeblood of 240 million people of Pakistan and he also emphasized on this genuine concern of the country that the controversial indian move could have serious implications for the other countries sharing waters under the same framework. India's approach to the treaty has generated serious concerns regarding its compliance with international legal obligations and its approach toward neighbouring states. But the 31 August 2026 Award issued by the Court of Arbitration is legally binding on the parties under the applicable arbitration framework and should be respected accordingly. Keeping this significant Award issued by the Court of Arbitration regarding the IWT it is imperative for India to set aside confrontational approaches and allow the waters to continue flowing without unnecessary impediments, as the treaty was meant to be an instrument of peace and stability in the region rather than a source of further instability.